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Recent Kinematic Solar Wind Modeling Papers

Fry, C. D.,  M. Dryer, C. S. Deehr, W. Sun, S.-I. Akasofu, and Z. Smith, "Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models," submitted, J. Geophys. Res., 2002.

Dryer, M.,  C. D. Fry, W. Sun, C. Deehr, Z. Smith, S.–I. Akasofu, and M. D. Andrews, “Prediction in real-time of the 2000 July 14 heliospheric shock wave and its companions during the “Bastille” epoch,” in press, Sol. Phys., 2002.

Fry, C. D., W. Sun, C. Deehr, M. Dryer, Z. Smith and S.-I. Akasofu, “Real-time space weather forecasting driven by solar observations,” in Proceedings of COSPAR Colloquium “Solar-Terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment,” September 10-12, 2001, Beijing, China, in press, 2002.

Kartalev, M.D., K.G. Grigorov, Z. Smith, M. Dryer, C.D. Fry, W. Sun, and C.S. Deehr,  “Comparative study of predicted and experimentally detected interplanetary shocks,” in Proceedings of the EuroConference on Solar Cycle and Space Weather, Vico Equense, Italy, 24-29 September 2001, ESA Publication 477, in press, 2002.

McKenna-Lawlor, S.M.P., M. Dryer, Z. Smith, K. Kecskemety,  C.D. Fry, W. Sun, C.S. Deehr, D. Berdichevsky, K. Kudela and G. Zastenker, Real time predictions of three numerical models of the arrival at the Earth of eleven flare/halo CME associated shocks compared with spacecraft measurements, in Proceedings of Space Weather Workshop: LookingTowards a Future European Space Weather Programme, ESA/ESTEC 17-19 December, 2001, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, in press, 2002.

McKenna-Lawlor, S.M.P., M. Dryer, Z. Smith, K. Kecskemety,  C.D. Fry, W. Sun, C.S. Deehr, D. Berdichevsky, K. Kudela and G. Zastenker,  “Comparison between the measured arrival times at L1 of shocks generated in association with eleven flare/halo CME events and their predicted arrival times computed using three numerical models,” in Proceedings of the Euro Conference on Solar Cycle and Space Weather, Vico Equense, Italy, 24-29 September 2001, ESA Publication 477, in press,  2002.

McKenna-Lawlor, S.M.P., M. Dryer, Z. Smith, K. Kecskemety, C.D. Fry, W.Sun, C.S. Deehr, D. Berdichevsky, K. Kudela and G. Zastenker, “Arrival times of flare/halo CME generated shocks at the Earth: Comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations,” in press, Annal. Geophys., 2002.

Smith, Z., M. Dryer, C.D. Fry, W. Sun, and C.S. Deehr,  “The role of interactions of solar-initiated interplanetary disturbances within 1 AU in real time predictions of shocks,” in Proceedings of the EuroConference on Solar Cycle and Space Weather, Vico Equense, Italy, 24-29 September 2001, ESA Publication 477, in press, 2002.

Sun, W., M. Dryer, C. D. Fry, C. S. Deehr, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. D. Kartalev, and K. G. Grigorov, “Improvement of solar type II radio burst estimates of initial solar wind shock speed using a kinematic model of the solar wind on the April 2001 solar event swarm,” in press, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2002.

Sun, W. , M. Dryer, C.D. Fry, C. S. Deehr, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. D. Kartalev, and K. G. Grigorov,  Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the “April Fools Day” epoch: 28 March – 21 April, 2001,” in press, Annal. Geophys., 2002.

Blanchette, J. J., and  C. D. Fry, Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model Operator's Manual, UPOS-A83-05, 28 Feb., 2001.

Fry, C. D., W. Sun, C. S. Deehr, M. Dryer, Z. Smith, S.-I. Akasofu, M. Tokumaru, and M. Kojima, “Improvements to the HAF solar wind model for space weather predictions,” J. Geophys. Res.,  106, p. 20,985-21,001, 2001.

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